Timcast IRL - Alex Jones Talks Lockdowns, The Election With Tim Pool And Michael Malice

Merch - https://teespring.com/stores/timcast-2 Podcast available on iTunes and Spotify, coming soon to all podcast platforms!


Timcast IRL - Alex Jones Talks Lockdowns, The Election With Tim Pool And Michael Malice

Toyah & Robert's Sunday Lunch - There's No Smoke Without Water

#ToyahWillcox #RobertFripp #Toyah Toyah & Robert's Sunday Lunch is by the water this week. Premieres Sunday 25 October 2020 at 12 noon. Order a one-off, dedicated Personalised Artwork by Toyah or a Personalised Aphorism by Robert at http://bit.ly/toyahrobertartworks Order a personalised video message to keep forever... ... from Toyah Willcox: https://celebvm.com/toyahwillcox from Robert Fripp: https://celebvm.com/robertfripp


Toyah & Robert's Sunday Lunch - There's No Smoke Without Water

X22 report today Ep 2326b - [DS]MSM Start To Shift Their Narrative,Dark Winter,The World Is Watching

X22 report today Ep 2326b - [DS]MSM Start To Shift Their Narrative,Dark Winter,The World Is Watching

Benford's Law - How mathematics can detect fraud!

UPDATE 11-11-2020 Hi all, this video is currently being shared in relation to the 2020 USA election. Benford's Law applies when the dataset is a form of geometic growth over several orders of magnitude, such as the lengths of rivers. So would Benford's Law apply to an election? Here is a great video by Matt Parker explaining why we would not expect the first digit of election returns to follow Benford's Law https://youtu.be/etx0k1nLn78 Some are currently citing the work of Walter Mebane as an example of Benford's law being applied to elections. Mebane's method is a test based on the second digits of election results. (Rather than the first digits). If you have heard of Benford's law being applied to elections, that is probably referring to Mebane's work. Mebane's own analysis of the 2020 election is now here http://www-personal.umich.edu/~wmebane/inapB.pdf and does not support evidence of fraud in the 2020 election. Note that Mebane says "The first-digit distribution has nothing whatsoever to do with any kind of election fraud." Mebane's test on the second digits of elections is not universally accepted. One paper that disagrees (or at least advises caution) is this paper (https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/206427437.pdf) from the California Institute of Technology. The paper simulated an election and found the test to be unreliable: "labeling a free and fair vote as fraudulent 34% of the time and... labeling a fraudulent election as free and fair 60% of the time." Their conclusion was that, since Benford's Law proved to be unreliable in a simple simulation, you should be extra cautious about applying it to a complicated, real, election. For completeness, Mebane's rebuttal to the above paper is here https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/e667/b8ad9f58992828ff820ddc8a005de754c5f5.pdf?_ga=2.67043500.340285523.1604599512-1614321896.1604599512 However, both papers agree that more research needs to be done to verify if Benford's law applies to elections. ---------- Benford's Law is a truly surprising fact about the frequency of numbers when studying data such as prices, populations, rivers, even street addresses. And if someone's accounts do not follow Benford's Law then they may be committing fraud! ----------- Here's a good article by Ted Hill: http://web.williams.edu/go/math/sjmiller/public_html/BrownClasses/197/benford/Hill_1st-dig.pdf Hill, TP. The First-Digit Phenomenon. American Scientist 86 (4), 358-363. (1998) Here's a list of papers http://www.benfordonline.net/list/chronological ----------- This law was first notice in 1881 by the astronomer Simon Newcomb, then again in 1938 by the physicist Frank Benford. They both noticed that the starting digits of a lot of real world statistics do not appear evenly but follow a logarithmic distribution, for example this would mean numbers that start with a 1 appear over 30% of the time. A quick appeal to intuition will show this is true for data that grows exponentially (geometrically). If something grows by some multiplication factor, you will soon see that the distribution is logarithmic, i.e. that numbers starting with a 1 appear 30% of the time. This explains the law for a lot of things that grow in this way, like prices and populations. Yet this law also appears in other types of growth, including factorials and Fibonacci numbers. However, remarkably, this law also describes what happens when you take data randomly from a variety of sources, such as you might do if you took numbers from a newspaper. Although this data comes from a variety of distributions, not just from exponential growth but many other distributions, yet still follows Benford's Law. Although Benford observed this fact in his original paper, it was not proven until 1995 by Ted Hill. However, you can still prove Benford's Law without knowing this. If we can assume Benford's Law exists, then it must be scale invariant, i.e. it would not matter which units we choose to make our measurements in - kilometres, miles, feet, centimetres or whatever. As I prove in this video, the only distribution that is scale invariant must be the logarithmic distribution. Hence Benford's Law is logarithmic. This proof was first put forward by Roger Pinkham in 1961. In 1992, Mark Nigrini wrote his PhD thesis on the detection of income tax invasion using Bedford's Law, and his ideas are applied in the detection of fraud. We see Benford's Law in observational data because real data can be a complex mix of many distributions and because it is the distribution achieved when data is repeatedly multiplied, divided, or raised to integer powers. And, once achieved, the distribution persists under further multiplication, division, and raising to integer powers.


Benford's Law - How mathematics can detect fraud!

Rental Market Apocalypse Trigger A Housing Crisis: Prepare Your Self For The Worst!

The rental market collapse is not only putting families at risk of eviction as it is contributing to the permanent closures of several stores and leading U.S. shopping malls to bankruptcy. As the economy awaits another stimulus package, unemployed workers drowning in debt don't find the means to meet their rental payments, consumer spending continues to critically decline making several businesses delinquent on their leases, and leaving mall owners in a dangerous position. The more the delivery of further federal assistance is postponed the more store closures are increasing the risk for shopping malls to become bankrupt. This week, two major U.S. malls have already filed for bankruptcy, and economists are fearing that an explosion of debt on the rental market may trigger a commercial real state and residential housing apocalypse of unprecedented proportions. In this video, we discuss the many decisive factors building up the rental market crisis. The housing market is in big trouble due to the lack of federal aid to ease the effects of the economic collapse. Market analysts outline that commercial real estate and residential housing have enormous capitulation risks, which will add massive pressure on the next stock market crash. A recent study found that up to 40 million people risk missing rent. Researchers indicated that the United States may be facing the most severe housing crisis in its history, while executives in the real estate and housing sectors argued that the longer the federal government waits to act, the steeper the financial cliff that renters will be pushed off when the eviction moratorium expires this winter. Meanwhile, a recent analysis showed that in 25 major US cities, over 50% are at risk of facing a housing market bubble. Renters and tenants coping with hardships, combined with a looming correction in home values, could weigh heavily on the housing market. Landlords are having to deal with huge amounts of default, which means renters then will be on the hook for months of missed payments, meaning that mass evictions, permanent business closures, and more bankruptcies are expected to happen shortly, and its consequences are likely to bleed over the broader economy. The outstanding rent debt could reach $7.2 billion before the close of 2020, and the total rent debt could reach nearly $70 billion by year-end if there is no additional stimulus spending, with nearly 12.8 million Americans owing an average of $5,400 from missed payments. Although the larger figure is far smaller than the 2007 subprime-mortgage bubble burst, this time around, tens of millions of people are going to be caught in a web of home-rental debt and eviction rates can be much higher. However, the problem doesn't stop right there. As many renters relied on credit cards to afford their payments, the total national rent debt is probably far larger than what can be counted from missed payments alone. This relocation of debt from landlord to plastic can harm renters’ credit long term by using too much of their available credit line, which can lower scores. Renters that have previously arranged alternative payment plans with their landlords month are now falling behind on their settlements, and some landlords have been adding punitive late fees on top of what is already owed, so their debt is becoming much higher than just the face value of the rent. That is to say, the multibillion-dollar rent debt added to the fast-climbing credit card debt could put a large burden of uncollectible debt on bank balance sheets, which will restrict their ability to lend, and consequently, undermine the credit of landlords. On top of that, commercial properties have been experiencing growing hardships as the considerable decline in consumer spending at brick-and-mortar retail stores continues to compromise the livelihood of retailers in shopping malls, and thereby, jeopardizing mall owners' ability to pay for their commercial mortgage and stay in business too. Last week, CBL & Associates and Pennsylvania Real Estate Investment Trust have filed for bankruptcy, seeking protection from creditors. Together the two properties account for some 87 million square feet of real estate nationwide. Both companies mentioned how the current recession has hurt their tenants, and, in turn, their own businesses. Others are expected to follow, since a recent survey showed shopping centers and malls rank as the most-avoided public places among consumers, and despite the coming holiday season, 55.4% of those polled said they would avoid shopping at malls, which means our economy will still experience a lot of turbulence before the year ends. Check out website for more videos: https://www.epiceconomist.com


Rental Market Apocalypse Trigger A Housing Crisis: Prepare Your Self For The Worst!

XAVER VARNUS PLAYS BACH'S TOCCATA & FUGUE IN THE BERLINER DOM

Xaver Varnus plays Toccata and Fugue in D minor on the great Sauer Organ of the Berliner Dom. Recorded live on the Opening Night of the "Berliner Internationaler Orgelsommer 2013". At the time of its dedication in 1905, the great Sauer Organ of the Berliner Dom was the largest in Germany, with its 7269 pipes and 113 registers, distributed across four manuals and pedals. The court organ builder Wilhelm Sauer, from Frankfurt on the Oder, created an instrument that embodied the newest technical and musical developments of German organ building at the time. In that way, the organ met the high expectations of both the organ builder and his client: in the Protestant Cathedral of the capital city, there was to be a monumental, modern, and in every way extraordinary instrument of the highest quality. The organ of the Cathedral of Berlin represents the highpoint of Sauer’s career. At the same time, it marks the end of the long development of Romantic orchestral organs, whose sound corresponds to the characteristic sound of a symphonic orchestra of that period. Today, the organ in the Cathedral of Berlin is the largest late-Romantic pneumatic action organ in the world that has survived in its original condition. •●The Official Video Site of Concert Organist Xaver Varnus●• Born in Budapest, his first piano teacher was Emma Németh, one of the last pupils of Claude Debussy. Xaver Varnus has played virtually every important organ in the world, including those in Bach's Thomaskirche in Leipzig (2014), Berliner Dom (2013), Notre-Dame (1981), Saint-Sulpice (2006) and Saint-Eustache (1996) in Paris, National Shrine in Washington, D.C. (1985), and Canterbury Cathedral (2004), as well as the largest existing instrument in the world, the Wanamaker Organ in Philadelphia (1985). His Quadruple Platinum Disc winning album From Ravel to Vangelis, released by Sony BMG in 2007, is the best-selling organ CD ever. As a Canadian citizen, Xaver Varnus resides in Berlin, Germany. "Put simply, Varnus is a monster talent, every bit as stimulating and individual as the late Glenn Gould" (The Globe & Mail, Canada's National Newspaper). Booking & Enquiries: xavervarnus@hotmail.com


XAVER VARNUS PLAYS BACH'S TOCCATA & FUGUE IN THE BERLINER DOM

TIM DILLON IS FUNNY - IMPAULSIVE EP. 130

Stand-up comedian Tim Dillon has three fears: Lilly Singh, Greta Thunberg, and Cincinnati. In this episode, Tim addresses a full-proof way to avoid being “cancelled,” how he convinces people that he’s NOT Chris Farley, and the effectiveness of a well balanced Keto diet. Get ready to laugh. Join The Movement. Be A Maverick ► https://maverickbyloganpaul.com SUBSCRIBE TO THE PODCAST ► https://www.youtube.com/impaulsive LISTEN ON: ITUNES: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/impaulsive-with-logan-paul/id1442164847?mt=2 SPOTIFY: https://open.spotify.com/show/36PzTdM4rvRPaJYdBW1ZNa?si=NIdEVBarRWuw17x3ubWZCw CASTBOX: https://castbox.fm/vc/1486024 Watch Previous (Love Doctor) ► https://youtu.be/79oT6tImzQU ADD US ON: INSTAGRAM: https://www.instagram.com/impaulsiveshow/ ***PLEASE NOTE*** Impaulsive is a significant break from the typical content viewers have come to expect from the vlog channel & we could not be more proud and excited to watch this unfold and grow. Please be advised that we will be exploring a wide variety of topics (some adult-themed) and our younger viewers (and their parents) should be advised that some topics will be for mature audiences only.


TIM DILLON IS FUNNY - IMPAULSIVE EP. 130